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A quick look at today’s polls at Real Clear Politics reveal numbers going in every direction for both candidates. While some polls have Senator Obama leading in the 4-6 point range, others have the race tied or McCain ahead by a couple points. With that in mind, one can safely cast aside the stupid and plain idiotic theory posited by some Democrats that McCain put his campaign on hold as a stunt due to sagging poll numbers.

Generally speaking I find polls useful tools in gauging the overall picture of the race. However, in the past few days it seems the numbers have gone crazy. I have looked at about a ten national polls from the past few days to determine whether there appears to be some discrepancy with the methodology or samples sizes to explain the larger than usual point spreads.

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The only pattern that I discerned was that McCain tends to do a little better with polls that have over/under age brackets closer to 50/50. In other words, in polls that sample voters 50 years or older in about equal numbers as those who are younger McCain generally does better. In polls that sample 49 year-olds and under in around the 55% sample range Obama does better. So, if one can make a predication it would be that if voter turnout plays out as it has in past Presidential elections, that is age 50 and over constitute close to 60% of the actual electorate, McCain will most likely win. However, if Obama’s efforts at increasing the youth vote pan-out he will win.

So how does that help us right now regarding the current polls with uneven samples and different methodologies? It doesn’t. Just rest assured that the race is close and barring a melt-down during the debates it will remain close to the very end.

For many, apparently not.

According to the poll below, it looks like a lot of voters on both sides are unclear as to where the candidates they are supporting really stand on immigration.

This is very interesting to me, because I truly believe that immigration is going to be a major issue in this campaign cycle, for Democrats, Republicans and everything in between.

From the Center for Immigration Studies:

WASHINGTON (March 31, 2007) –A new poll using neutral language finds that primary and caucus voters have little knowledge of candidates’ immigration positions. The results also show that voters often do not share their candidate’s position.

Among the findings:

 

• Only 34 percent of McCain voters, 42 percent of Clinton voters, and 52 percent of Obama voters correctly identified their candidate as favoring eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants who meet certain requirements.
• Of McCain voters, 35 percent mistakenly thought he favored enforcement that would cause illegals to return home, another 10 percent thought he wanted mass deportations, and 21 percent didn’t know his position.
• Voters often held different positions from the candidate they supported. Only 31 percent of McCain voters had the same immigration position as he does. For Clinton voters, 45 percent shared her position; 61 percent of Obama voters shared his position.
• This lack of knowledge, coupled with disagreements with their candidates’ positions, makes it very difficult to draw any conclusions about the fact that all three remaining candidates favor legalization for illegal immigrants.
• Whoever wins the presidency will face significant opposition to giving eventual citizenship to illegal immigrants. Just 25 percent of Republican and 50 percent of Democratic primary/caucus voters said they would support such an effort.
• Pro-enforcement voters have a greater intensity of views than supporters of legalization. Among Republicans, almost nine out ten who favored causing illegals to return home said they strongly supported that view; on the other hand, fewer than half of Republicans who backed legalization strongly supported that view.
• This greater intensity also exists among Democrats. Of Democrats who favored causing illegals to return home, more than seven out of ten strongly supported that view; on the other hand, fewer than six out of ten who favored legalization strongly supported that view.

Methodology: The survey of 1,276 persons who voted in a primary or caucus was conducted March 12-13. The survey was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research.

Even though this study shows that there are some uninformed McCain voters, the fact of the matter is that McCain is the presumptive GOP nominee. Basically, those who are going to vote for him are doing so on more issues than immigration.

However, these findings are extremely problematic for Hillary Clinton, whose campaign has been on a downward spiral for weeks, despite leading in polls in upcoming primaries.

The fact of the matter is that she is avoiding answering questions in a straightforward manner which leaves her supporters in a position where they have to guess, or naturally assume Hillary Clinton is on the same page as them.

Obama on the other hand, seems to be much more straightforward on the issues and doesn’t beat around the bush when he is asked questions.

Is this going to be an election of straight talk? We’ll see.