Even though Mitt Romney didn’t have a first place finish in Florida, the Republican race for the White House is far from over. If anything, I think that Rudy finally leaving the race will truly make it a true election. With Huckabee pretty much being a non-factor at this point, the race has come down to Mitt Romney and John McCain.
Looking at the latest CNN delegate count, after winning Florida, McCain will have 95 delegates and Romney falls in second with 75.
While the media is saying that McCain is now THE candidate for the Republican Party, I don’t think that any judgment can be made before Super Tuesday.
Both candidates have won 3 states, but only Mitt Romney has 3 second place finishes (or “silvers”) to add to his tally sheet. McCain on the other hand, has only 1 second place finish, and 2 third place finishes.
Even with that aside, the real fight is going to be on Super Tuesday.
Both McCain and Romney are going to have to fight extremely hard to get the necessary delegate count to pull ahead with a solid lead, and at this point I think that its anyones game.
There are a lot of “winner takes all” states, as well as “winner takes all + bonus” states up for grabs on Super Tuesday, and with Rudy leaving the race, I think that some of these races will become even tighter.
Now that Rudy is going to be endorsing McCain, I am hopeful that Fred Thompson will come out and counter that surge by throwing his support behind Romney. If this is done, there will be a clear distinction as to who is the true and feux conservative. With Rudy behind McCain, conservatives will see that as a weak ticket for advancing a true conservative agenda. This will give Romney a great advantage to take charge as “THE conservative candidate” in the race.
With tomorrows debate being at the Reagan Library, I expect this to be an opportunity for Romney to emphasize his conservative values, his inspiration from Reagan and come down harder than ever on Senator McCain.
From the New York Times Caucus Blog:
PANAMA CITY, Fla.—The Romney campaign said Monday that some of their supporters in the Miami area have begun reporting receiving automated phone calls Monday afternoon accusing Mr. Romney of wanting to re-open relations with Fidel Castro’s Cuba.
The claim about the calls ratcheted up tensions in what has emerged as a caustic final day of campaigning ahead of Tuesday’s Republican primary, with charges and counter-charges flying back and forth between Mr. Romney and his rival, Senator John McCain, although a senior Romney campaign official said he was unsure who was behind the calls.
The calls began Monday, soon after some radio ads featuring Roger Noriega, a former State Department official and Romney surrogate, were broadcast in the morning outlining the opposite stance for Mr. Romney, according to, Al Cardenas, Mr. Romney’s campaign chairman in Florida.
Mr. Cardenas called the phone calls “despicable” and pointed out only the McCain and Romney campaigns are doing robo-calls at this point in the Miami area.
The Romney campaign has been doing automated calls to voters impugning Mr. McCain’s vote against the Medicare prescription drug benefit and spotlighting his role in the McCain-Kennedy immigration measure, which would have provided a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and McCain-Feingold, a campaign finance measure reviled by conservatives.
“Those are fine,” Mr. Cardenas said. “His position on those issues is on the record.”
But Mr. Cardenas said making the kind of “outlandish claim” in the phone calls about Cuba “in a community that has obviously been traumatized by this issue” was “dirty.”
The McCain campaign says they’re “absolutely” not behind the calls.
I don’t really think that this is a McCain tactic. He knows how brutal these calls can be from his experiences in South Carolina in 2000, however I don’t see any reason to believe that it wasn’t Rudy Giuliani’s campaign, or supporters behind these calls.
Rudy knows that he has a large number of votes in already from the early and absentee ballots that were submitted. According to the Giuliani campaign, as many as 400,000 early votes have been submitted, which means that there is still a chance that Rudy could place in third.
Obviously, a third place finish would be catastrophic to his campaign and would probably kill his chances of winning the nomination. However, a second place finish would give him the opportunity to raise a little more money from some naive donors who believe that he still has a chance because he was able to beat Mitt Romney.
In reality, if Rudy doesn’t win first, Ron Paul will have more delegates than he does. With that being the case, I really don’t see him carrying on much further, especially with McCain polling higher in New York, Rudy’s home state.
In the world of conservative politics the close bond amongst Evangelical Christians has been extremely powerful, and for the most part, has been effective in sticking their forces behind one candidate.
That has been the case up until just recently.
With Mike Huckabee banking on the fact that he will get the Evangelical vote, he must be suffering from a severe case of heartburn after finding out that Morton Blackwell, President of the Leadership Institute threw his support behind Mitt Romney.
From Blackwell:
“The only way conservatives are going to beat the Democrats this year is if we unite the major elements of our coalition. Governor Romney is the only candidate who can bring conservative change to Washington now and maintain the conservative coalition so many of us helped Ronald Reagan build. I am proud to support Governor Romney”
I don’t know if the Romney campaign realizes how huge of an endorsement this is, not only due to Blackwell’s status within the conservative movement, but also simply due to the fact that he is one of the most revered, and well known conservative organizers amongst college students.
While the Leadership Institute is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit educational organization that does not support or oppose candidates seeking political office, those people who are trained by the Leadership Institute are those who would be classified as the “wonks” and are well aware of Blackwell’s endorsement.
The one thing that many people don’t realize about Morton Blackwell is that while he is a very quiet, soft spoken man who usually is behind the scenes, he has his hands in just about every major conservative organization in the United States.
Just off the top of my head, I know that Blackwell is a member of the American Conservative Union Board of Directors, a member of the Mont Pelerin Society (even though he isn’t an economist), a board member of the Free Congress Foundation, a board member of the National Right to Work Foundation as well as a board member of the Philadelphia Society.
Just research any of those organizations mentioned and you’ll see how many key conservative leaders Blackwell has ties with.
Aside from being a “power player” in the conservative movement, Blackwell has also been a prominent leader within the Souther Baptist Convention, an affiliation that would almost seem to naturally go towards Huckabee.
So far, Huckabee has been under scrutiny from some of the top conservative economic organizations, hasn’t received the support of the country’s top Evangelical leaders, and finally hasn’t been able to raise any money.
I think that Blackwell’s endorsement, while being something that has gone under the radar in terms of attention, will truly be something of importance to the Huckabee campaign.
In terms of having the conservative movements support, Mitt Romney clearly has the advantage, especially with Fred Thompson leaving the race. If McCain keeps getting endorsements from people like Charlie Crist, who is my opinion an inconsistent moderate, and Huckabee continues to lose his base of Evangelicals that he is banking on, Romney could be the GOP candidate by the conclusion of Super Tuesday.
I expect there to be some other big-name conservative leaders who will throw their support behind Mitt Romney in the coming days before February 5th. Of course, I welcome any suggestions.
It’s always good to see young Republicans taking action to oppose ridiculous pieces of legislation. This time around, its the Massachusetts Alliance of College Republicans who took their message of straight to the State House, in opposition to Governor Duval Patrick’s proposal to grant instate tuition to illegal immigrants.
The BU Daily Free Press Reported:
MACR members from Boston College, Northeastern University, Simmons College and University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth stood outside the Statehouse for an hour in an attempt to get their message to morning commuters.
While they didn’t necessarily have the largest group, the simple fact that they were there on a cold morning speaks very highly to their dedication.
The College Republicans are a great organization, with many members nationwide. Unfortunately, one trait that seems to stay consistent throughout the years is their inability to mobilize around issues. Sure, they are always there for elections, but sometimes issues are just as important.
So, when College Republicans take action like this, I think its only deserving that attention is given.
If there are any College Republican chapters that you would like me to mention, please send me an email!
I’d just like to take a minute to welcome everyone who has been in Washington, DC over the last three days to show your support for choosing life. As I mentioned in an earlier post, abortions are on the decline and this cant be seen as “by chance.”
For those of you who are working today and cant be on the Mall joining them, you can watch it live on EWN
The great thing about this March is that the people who are here are not the hard-lined, clinic bombing abortion activists that you hear about on the news. Instead, these are students, parents, teachers, etc from all walks of life, from all corners of the country who are fighting to educate people on the options that are available, other than abortion.
While I can’t be there today, I wish them the best of luck.