What does late October polling actually mean?
With polling being one of the center-point of this election, it’s important to look back at how late October data has actually played out on Election Day in terms of giving the underdog a victory.
From Gallop.com:
With only one week left in Campaign 2008, history is on the side of Barack Obama. It would be unusual — although not unprecedented — to see his recent 7- to 9-point leads among registered voters and 4- to 7-point leads among traditional likely voters shrink enough between now and the election to put the presidency within McCain’s reach.
For those who believe that John McCain can actually still come back and win this race, Ronald Reagan’s upset in 1980 is probably a good reference and confidence builder. As the chart above shows, in 1980 Jimmy Carter was leading amongst likely voters by 3% and an even more impressive 8% amongst registered voters at this same time, yet ended up losing the election by 10%.
However, while optimism is a great thing, the 2008 election is completely different than 1980’s. First, Ronald Reagan was able to carry California; there is no way in hell that John McCain could ever do that.
Furthermore, the electoral vote count in 1980 was:
- Ronald Reagan: 489
- Jimmy Carter: 49
1980 Electoral Map (source: wikipedia.com)
Unfortunately, I don’t think the Republican Party will ever see a map that red again.
However, even if a state looks like it might be a victory for the challenger, that doesn’t mean that you should pull out and call it quits (example: Michigan). Instead you or the party should still maintain a strong presence in every state (whether it’s winnable or not), simply because it shows people that the Party is looking out for it’s members nationwide, not just those in winnable states.
When the Parties and the candidates write off particular states just because they aren’t winnable, it creates extended apathy amongst a once energized base, making it even more difficult to promote the Republican agenda.
