GOP takes a blow in Louisiana; should we be worried?

Yes, the fact that Democrat Don Cazayoux beat Republican Woody Jenkins in an expensive race to replace Richard Baker in Louisiana’s 6th Congressional District isn’t news that the Republican Party is looking for.

However, is this something that we (Republicans) should be worried about?

I know that for many, this race was going to be seen as an early indicator of how things might play out in November, however I don’t think that this race is one that can be seen as representative of the national electorate.

The one thing that people seem to overlook in this race is the fact that Woody Jenkins was by no means a lifelong Republican.

A simple Google search will show anyone that Woody Jenkins was first a Republican in his early years, then switched to being a Democrat for 22 years, and then when he got the ambition to run for Senate, he switched back to the Republican Party.

While there is no doubt that Woody Jenkins is a strong conservative, who has pushed conservative reforms for both parties, these switches can often times make people uncomfortable and even resentful when they seek higher offices.

An example of this would be with Norm Coleman in Minnesota, who ran for Mayor of St. Paul, Minnesota and won as a Democrat, later to switch to the Republican Party. There are many who would argue that had Paul Wellstone not died in that plane crash in October (less than 2 weeks before the election), that Norm Coleman would have lost.

Be it no surprise that it’s Norm Coleman’s race against Al Franken in Minnesota that is being labeled as one of the top Senate races of the 2008 election.

The fact of the matter is that the 6th district race in Louisiana, as well as the Minnesota Senate Race cannot be looked at as determining factors in the upcoming elections.

You can’t take life-long Democrats, match them up against inconsistent Republicans (though sometimes consistent conservatives) and expect there to be an outcome that represents the national electorate.

The 2008 Presidential Election is going to have a life-long Republican, who is also a solid conservative (John McCain) and whoever the Democratic nominee is will be a stark contrast to Senator McCain.

It’s impossible to determine any race as the one that sets the tone for the 2008 election when there isn’t even a nominee for the Democrats. Even amongst Senators Clinton and Obama, there are stark differences that could yield certain blocks of undecided voters going towards a certain candidate.

We won’t be able to make any educated guesses until we at least know who the nominee is.

For Republicans, that makes it tough for us to fundraise with, but I would imagine that it will be even tougher for the Democrats once they choose their nominee.

As it stands now, I’m sure both candidates are tapping out some of their regular donors and bringing many more close to the federal campaign contribution limits.

Either way, this definitely shows that 2008 will be an unorthodox and exciting election year.