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Posted on Sep 9, 2014 in RNC

Republican Momentum

FROM: RNC National Press Secretary Kirsten Kukowski @kakukowski
TO: Interested Parties
RE: Republican Momentum

Finding a pollster or pundit who doesn’t think Republicans have the advantage in November is about as difficult as finding a Democrat Senate candidate willing to embrace President Obama. And the reason is the same: President Obama, his agenda, and his record are getting more unpopular every day.

Indeed, according to a recent GWU Battleground Poll, Republicans are leading in the “generic ballot.” 46 percent say they would lean or vote Republican; 42 percent say they would lean or vote Democrat.

In states with a competitive Senate race, Republicans hold a 16 point advantage, 52 percent-36 percent. Republicans are more likely to vote: 69 percent said they are “extremely likely to vote.” 57 percent of Democrats said the same.

Voters trust Republicans more on a host of issues: immigration, taxes, foreign policy, federal spending, and the economy.

Americans have more confidence in Republicans than Democrats to deal with the budget and spending, by a 51-38 margin. They trust us more on foreign policy, 50 percent to 40 percent. On the economy, it’s 49 percent to 42 percent. On taxes, it’s 48 percent to 42 percent and on immigration, 48 percent to 41 percent.

The majority of Americans disapprove of the job President Obama is doing. That’s true generally and on specific issues. For example, 61 percent disapprove of his handling of the budget; 58 percent disapprove of his handling of foreign policy.

Yesterday’s CNN/ORC poll showed similar numbers facing Democrats. Republicans, again, surged to a 4-point lead on the generic ballot—an 8 point swing from July—with a commanding 15-point lead among independents. The poll also showed 52% of registered voters would back a candidate who opposes the president, while 39% would support a candidate that supports him.

The president’s name may not be on the ballot, but Republicans will make sure that voters know that voting for a Democrat is the same as voting for Obama. It will be impossible for Democrat Senate candidates to run away from the president.

Democrats running for reelection have a record to examine, and it’s a record of almost complete support for the president. Kay Hagan of North Carolina, for example, voted with the president 96% of the time. New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen stood with him 99% of the time. And Colorado’s Mark Udall voted with him 99% of the time.

When the president is so unpopular, that’s an impossible record to defend.

To take back the Senate, Republicans have to win six seats currently occupied by Democrats. Right now, polls have us tied or ahead in more than six seats, with Republican candidates closing the gap in other states.

The Republican candidates have double digit leads in three states currently represented by Democrats: West Virginia, South Dakota, and Montana. New polling out this past weekend shows Tom Cotton leading Senator Mark Pryor by five points in Arkansas. In North Carolina, Thom Tillis is running ahead of Senator Kay Hagan, and Dan Sullivan is outpacing Mark Begich in Alaska after the Democrat Senator had an embarrassing few weeks. In Louisiana, Mary Landrieu hasn’t led in a polling average since January and her numbers continue to lag as voters question her residency and reportedly illegal use of tax dollars for private air travel. 

We’re also competitive in places that people didn’t expect us to be. We now have multiple paths to take back the Senate.

That’s not to say it will be easy. We’re going to have to keep working hard for the next two months. But with the momentum—and more importantly, the American people—on our side, victory is within reach.


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