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Posted on Mar 19, 2008 in Uncategorized

Romney Wins Nevada, Now What?

As I’m sure you’ve heard, Mitt Romney is looking to have a decisive victory in Nevada, where he was leading with double digits from early on.

With the victory and Nevada and the polls still open in South Carolina, the question of “what’s next?” is one that it seems many have found themselves asking.

Looking at South Carolina, it doesn’t look like Romney will come in first place. However, there are some factors, such as weather and the announcement of his victory in Nevada that might give him a boost to make the “silver medal” more competitive for Huckabee or McCain.

However, even assuming that Mitt Romney comes in third place in South Carolina, he will still be the leader in terms of number of delegates (though Nevada is non-binding) and looking at the early returns, he’ll also still be the leader in terms of the number of votes.

While the media has continued to say that Romney needs to win South Carolina to stay viable, I simply don’t see that as being the case.

Traditionally it has been said that if you don’t win South Carolina, you aren’t going to win the party nomination. While that has been seen in previous elections, this is definitely an election like no other, where even going into super Tuesday, there will be at least three strong candidates still in the race.

Now, Romney finds himself in a position where he has the lead in terms of delegates, however with Florida coming up and McCain and Giuliani both polling high, he is going to have to fight to place in second, or a close third, while still making serious inroads in the other primary states.

Shortly after Florida is the Maine Caucus, which has 21 delegates up for grabs. This could be a strong state for Romney, where he has the New England ties, as well as having the budget to have a strong marketing blitz both there and in the Super Tuesday states.

While Giuliani will also have potential to do well in Maine, if he doesn’t win in Florida, I don’t really see him staying in the race much longer.

To be honest, I find it offensive for a candidate who is seeking the Presidency to write off states, simply because they aren’t as valuable in terms of getting delegates. When I go to the polls, I’m looking for the candidate who has nationwide appeal as well as local appeal, not someone who understands that a presidential bid could essential be won with some simple equations.

Rolling in to Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney is going to give John McCain a run for his money in Arizona, which has an extremely large Mormon population, as well as Utah and Colorado, which also have a large LDS population.

In California, Romney is currently polling in second place, just behind John McCain and with Rudy Giuliani nipping at Romney’s heels. With the Nevada victory, I believe that Romney’s polling numbers in California will increase by at least 2% making that race even closer.

However, what is going to be the big decider in California is how the undecided voters decide to lean. Mitt Romney has the business background that should help him boost his support in places like Orange County and amongst some of the Republican-leaning executives in Silicon Valley.

While this race is nowhere near over, I think that with the first set of consecutive victories in this election season, I think that Mitt Romney is one step closer to successfully getting the nomination.

Now all eyes are on South Carolina…

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