DNC: McCain is the Nominee… Anyone Think the DNC is Jumping the Gun?

Does the DNC know something we don’t?

I got this email from them today explaining how John McCain is going to be the nominee and that Democrats need to start mobilizing around their party now if they want to beat him.

Last time I checked, both Huckabee and Romney were still in this race.

While it might be an easy way for them to raise money, I would hope that those getting this email would be smarter than assuming the outcome of such a wild primary season.

	Dear DCRepublican, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are done. John McCain will be the Republican nominee — he’s the only one with a reasonable path to the nomination.So how do we beat him? We stand up — right now — start fighting, and show the American people that he’s not who they think he is. We can’t wait for Hillary or Barack to win the nomination. Now that the Republicans have a candidate, the dollars are starting to pour in from special interests who will do anything to beat the Democratic nominee. They’re just waiting for us to decide so they can start smearing. Here’s what U.S. News and World Report recently reported about how the RNC is getting ready… [RNC Chairman Mike] Duncan and his aides want to be ready to go on the offensive against the Democratic nominee presumptive in an effort to define the opposition candidate on GOP terms. Opposition research is already well along, and the plan is for surrogates to talk to the media around the country while a TV ad campaign in key states and media markets as soon as the Democratic nominee is determined. We must be ready to fight back, and fight back hard, today. Now that we know our opponent, it’s time to build a national effort on the programs you and I have worked so hard to create over the last four years – from our cutting-edge technology to our voter protection programs, it’s time to shift gears. I need you to contribute $25, $50, or $100 to help us fight John McCain right now: http://www.democrats.org/FightMcCain John McCain is a media darling, but don’t trust his carefully-crafted image – he’s worked for years to brand himself. From Iraq to health care, Social Security to special interest tax cuts to ethics, he’s promising nothing more than a third Bush term. After championing campaign finance reform and ethics legislation to score political points, he now has a staggering amount of lobbyists involved in every aspect of his campaign. In fact, two of the top three sources for John McCain’s campaign cash are D.C. lobbying firms, and he looked the other way as Jack Abramoff bought and paid for the Republican Party and the Culture of Corruption. On immigration reform, he’s run as far to the right as he can, aligning himself with the most extreme elements of the Republican Party. On the war, McCain scoffed at Bush’s call to leave troops in Iraq for 50 years, saying “Make it a hundred!” On a woman’s right to choose, McCain has vowed to appoint judges who would overturn Roe v. Wade. On the economy, one of the issues that the American people care most about, McCain has said: “I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.” We can’t afford four more years with a President who drives the economy into the ground. We can’t afford four more years with a President who fights an endless war in Iraq. We can’t afford four more years with a President who gives tax cuts to companies who ship jobs overseas; with a President who can’t get every American the health care they deserve; with a President we just can’t trust. I don’t just want to beat John McCain – I want it to be a landslide. If you’re as committed as I am, I need you to make a contribution today: http://www.democrats.org/FightMcCain Only the Democratic Party is legally allowed to spend unlimited amounts of money to back our nominee and tell the real story about John McCain. We proved that our strategy worked in 2006, and it will work again this fall. Help us today: http://www.democrats.org/FightMcCain Let’s get going, Howard Dean
	Paid for and authorized by the Democratic National Committee, www.democrats.org. This communication is not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee. Democratic National Committee, 430 S. Capitol St. SE, Washington, DC 20003

If McCain Wins…

Despite “having more scars than Frankenstein,” John McCain definitely has an amazingly beautiful daughter and wife. Johnny is a true Mac daddy.

Now that I got that out of the way, one thing that I’ve found to be amazing in John McCain’s daughter, Meghan’s, campaign blog. Unlike most blogs of children who have parents running for President, this blog seems extremely honest to me. Instead of just touting talking points, this blog gives a behind the scenes look of what goes on behind the scenes and shares a lot of thoughts from the campaign trail.

Sure, it would be easy for her to just reiterate what her dad says on the road, but instead of doing that she gives her audience something to compel them to come back more, realness. Yes, the fact that she is a solid 10 doesn’t hurt, but even with that aside she’s definitely set a new bar for campaign-related blogs, managed by the children of the candidate.

Super Tuesday Redux and What’s Next

Well, today was definitely one for the books. While there have been some surprising results on the GOP side, I think that the once again, some in the media have stepped out too far in making their predictions for what is going to happen.

John McCain had a fantastic evening and won all the states that he needed to win, not all the states he wanted to win, but nonetheless, he clinched the necessities. Mitt Romney picked up some more delegates as well, but didn’t do as good as his campaign would have hoped in some key states. Then of course, there is Mike Huckabee, the candidate who really stood/stands no chance of winning the nomination, who played the role of spoiler for what could have been a fantastic duo between Romney and McCain. But instead of being the bigger man, Huckabee decided that his pride is more important than the future of the United States. Whatever his strategy was, it worked.

While we can gravel for hours about how Mike Huckabee doesn’t have a place in this race, I think that there are more important things that need to be discussed about this election, particularly the pundits and their calls to action from their soapboxes.

Tonight, while watching the returns come in on Fox News, William (Bill) Kristol, someone who has been wrong with just about every assertion he has made regarding this election, thought it would be fitting to suggest that Mitt Romney will bail out of the race after speaking at CPAC later this week. This is not how I see Mitt Romney going out of the race, and I’m sure his advisers don’t see it that way either. However, Bill Kristol seems convinced that Romney will leave the race at CPAC. At this point, that seems like an unnecessary move and a merit less assertion.

Currently (as of 1:18am EST) John McCain has 482 delegates, Mitt Romney 168, and Mike Huckabee 117. Despite the fact that McCain has a sizable lead on the other two, in looking at the next primary states, Romney might bridge that gap significantly. Just looking at some of the states coming up, here are some of the things that will be working in Romney’s favor:

February 9:

• Kansas: Closed Caucus; many blue collar jobs that run the risk of being sent to China if change isn’t made. (39 delegates, Winner Take All)

February 12:

• Maryland: Strong Mormon base, as well as strong community of business leaders. (37 delegates, Winner Take All)
• Virginia: Strong conservative base, as well as strong business base. Despite its proximity, many Virginians aren’t looking for someone whose been in Washington a long time. (63 delegates, Winner Take All)

If Romney can do well in just these three states, thats an additional 139 delegates. With a strong media blitz in Louisiana and Washington state (relatively cheap media markets), he could possible score some delegates there as well.

Then comes February 19th:

• Wisconsin: This should be a state where Mitt Romney can do extremely well. John McCain has almost no organization in the state (looking at his website) and Mike Huckabee doesn’t have all that much traction either. With Wisconsin’s cheap media market, advertising should be relatively easy. This could net Romney up to an additional 40 delegates.

Looking beyond, if Huckabee leaves the race by March 4th, Romney will have an extremely good chance of dominating in Texas (140 delegates), Ohio (88 delegates), Pennsylvania (74 delegates), North Carolina (69 delegates), Ohio (57 delegates).

To sum it up, this race isn’t over, nowhere close. The only campaign that should consider their exit is the Huckabee campaign, who truly is playing the roll of spoiler and not much else.

I’ve said it before, if Mitt Romney left the race, I’d be alright with John McCain and would help in any way that I can. However, if the nominee were Mike Huckabee, I’d just have to sit this one out and layout my 4 years rebuilding plan. It’s not over for Romney yet, it’ll just take a little more time and a little more money. Now that the expensive media markets are out of the way, I think Romney can get a better ROI for his campaign.

I’ll have more on this later.