Republican Keys to Victory on this Super Tuesday

CNN has put together a nice list of what the keys to victory are going to be not only on this Super Tuesday, but for the remaining primaries leading up to the nomination:

Which way did Latino voters vote?

For Republicans, the Latino vote has split in the only two races with a significant enough demographic to count. Mitt Romney won the Hispanic vote in Nevada, while John McCain took that vote in Florida. Hispanics will likely count again in New York, New Jersey, California and Arizona — McCain’s home state. But in the past, the Latino vote has largely gone Democratic, and whether they will play a role in the GOP decision in those states remains to be seen.

I don’t really think that the Latino vote is going to be as big of a role in the primaries. However, if Barack Obama ends up clinching the nomination, don’t be surprised if some Latinos switch over to the GOP side in states with open primaries and vote for McCain, who doesn’t have the most stringent stance on immigration.

How did conservatives vote?

McCain has come under attack from both Romney and Mike Huckabee on his conservative credentials — both saying the former Vietnam War POW is almost a liberal, and many conservative radio talk show hosts have joined the fray. Conservative voters have tended to vote for either Romney or Huckabee in the early contests. If the vote stays that way, it may be a long road to Minneapolis-St. Paul in September.

This is going to be extremely important. Despite Huckabee’s baptist roots, Romney is now seen as the true conservative in this race. With his business background and good efforts of shutting down attacks, Romney will do quite well with conservatives. However, McCain cannot be discounted either, he is still the strong horse right now, so its going to be interesting to see how conservative end up voting tonight. If McCain doesn’t get a strong showing of the conservative vote and slips in the delegate count, I’m hoping that both he and Huckabee will see that the tables have turned. However, the same goes for Romney, but for him to leave the race it would truly take a bloodbath, which I don’t see happening at all.

Evangelical voters — did Huckabee dominate?

Mike Huckabee has largely dominated the evangelical vote, but Mitt Romney also has also made a strong showing. McCain generally tops those who say they are not evangelicals. But in two states — New Hampshire and Florida — McCain ran at least as well as his two main rivals for those votes. Evangelical voters could have a strong influence in several Super Tuesday states, including Georgia, Alabama and Huckabee’s home state, Arkansas.

I agree, this is going to be an interesting test for the Evangelicals in the United States. Traditionally they stand by their own, but I don’t know if I see that happening this time around.

For those concerned about the economy as the top issue, how did they vote? Immigration?

McCain voters by and large say the war in Iraq is their top issue, although in South Carolina and Florida he tread into Romney territory, coming out on top with voters who said the economy was their main issue. If that trend continues and economy voters move toward McCain, Romney — who touts his business experience on the campaign trail — could have some serious problems on Tuesday. Voters have consistently named the economy as their most serious concern in exit polling data, while illegal immigration has consistently come in second. Voters most concerned about that issue have so far split between Huckabee and Romney.

This is going to be another interesting things to watch. Today the stock market was down 300 points, economists came out speaking of a recession and people are starting to do their taxes. Depending on the part of the country, this could have a huge impact and really help boost Mitt Romney in the states where he is nipping at John McCain. People vote with their pocketbooks and today is a day where they are probably thinking about that most.

Age-wise, who broke for who?

Voters of all ages have been all over the map in early GOP contests, according to the exit polls. Huckabee, who won Iowa, won all the age groups there. McCain won all age groups in New Hampshire — where he took his first victory — except for those 65 and older, who went for Romney. In Michigan, where Romney won, the numbers were reversed with McCain taking the 60 plus crowd. In South Carolina, where McCain eked out a close win over Huckabee, his support came primarily from those 45 and older, while voters 44 and younger went for the former Baptist preacher. And in Florida, McCain voters tended to fall into the 18 to 29 or 45 and above range, leaving Romney in the middle with voters 30 to 44 years old.

I’m not really sure how this one will pan out. There has been so much advertising and attacks on all sides, that I don’t know how age will factor. I do know that Romney has been using advertising that is intriguing to all demographics, whereas McCain and Huckabee’s latest ads seems to be targeted to the older voters. I think this is the first election where the “facebook effect” can really be tested out and gauge what really mobilizes the younger voters on both sides of aisle.

What was more important: personal qualities or issues?

Romney voters say issues are more important than personal qualities, while McCain voters say it’s the other way around, according to polling data from the early contests.

With all three campaigns being in attack mode, I think that this is going to come down to the issues. Right now, all three candidates are angry with eachother and will take whatever blows they can. In that respect they are indistinguishable. However, when it comes to the issues, its extremely easy to distinguish Mitt Romney from John McCain on issues like Immigration, etc.

Who got the Republican change vote?

“Change” is a key concept in the 2008 race for the White House. For Republicans, it’s a fine line — change means something different from a Republican administration, admittedly mired in some very low polling numbers. John McCain has been in the man for those unhappy with the Bush administration so far in this election season, despite his support for Bush’s latest Iraq strategy. Those happy with the way the president is handling his job have tended to pick Huckabee or Romney. Democrats are already on the record as ready for a big change from the Bush years — if McCain remains the front-runner after Super Tuesday, it could signal that President Bush will be largely irrelevant in the general election campaign.

I think that both John McCain and Mitt Romney bring the concept of change to the table. McCain brings his maverick style of change, whereas Romney uses the application of traditional conservative values to invoke change in Washington. I don’t see many Huckabee supporters being ones who are looking for change as opposed to simply electing someone who sees the world the same way they do.

Vodka, Marketing and Super Tuesday?

What do they all have in common? They are all part of a unique, new marketing technique being tested by Svedka Vodka.

From MediaPost’s Marketing Daily:

SVEDKA VODKA IS LAUNCHING A campaign around “Super Tuesday” in which its robotic The Svedka girl is central to the brand’s faux campaign to put a “Fembot in the White House.” The central conceit of the Svedka “party” is that Republicans, Democrats and independents should focus on bipartisan party animus.

Svedka will hold invitation-only, election results-viewing parties in New York City with comedy news site 236.com at Merc Bar as well as in Washington, D.C. on Feb. 5. The “Join the Party” effort includes a party bus called the “Straight Shot Express” where people can hang and imbibe, assuming they are of voting age.

I’ve heard a few people discussing this concept over the past few days and it seems that the response is mixed. I personally think that this is a great idea and something that should be pursued even more.

Not only do these marketing efforts help Svedka Vodka boost their sales and image, but it also gives young people, who have some interest in politics the opportunity to go to an event that isn’t all Wonk’s and find similar “entry-level politicos”. Events like this even raise the possibility that someone who has never really had an interest in politics might take interest in America’s oldest pastime.

Of course, with events like these you’re almost certain to get drunk. If your candidate is leading, you’re going to be happy and take a victory shot. If he’s losing, you’re going to need something to relax you and take a “coping shot.” Either way, Svedka wins.

This is definitely political marketing 2.0, and its leaving me curious to see what they will come up with next.

For those in DC who want to check out this event tonight, its going to be at Top of the Hill:

319 Pennsylvania Ave. SE
Washington, DC 20003
Telephone: 202.546.7782

Even Texas Wants a Piece of Super Tuesday

It looks like even Texans are trying to get in on the Super Tuesday action, even though they can’t until March 4.

According to KSAT’s (San Antonio) website:

More than 1,000 calls poured into the Bexar County Elections Department on Monday from voters wanting to know where they could vote in Tuesday’s primary.

I’m sure that many people have probably laughed at the situation, but I think that it really shows how consumed the American electorate has become in this election.

I can remember elections where there was very little primary coverage and the results would only be announced at the top of the hour, or as the final results are in.

However in this election, primaries seem to have become as big of a national spectacle as the November election. This makes me wonder what things are going to be like leading up to November, particularly once each party has their candidate. Are they going to be more active or are they going to be warn out from the massive media blitz they have been seeing?

Regardless of the outcome, I think that its amazing to see how excited people are getting about these elections. I just hope that once dust settles from the primaries, that people will be able to come together around their candidates and bring a revival to two-sided political culture in the United States.

I’ve mentioned it before, Super Tuesday is like the Super Bowl to many us this year.